Decoding Dragon for Dummies

Decoding the Dragon
India can’t be complacent on national security
by Lt-Gen Harwant Singh (retd)

THERE can be no greater proof of failure of India’s foreign policy than the reality of our unsatisfactory relations with all our immediate neighbours. From Pakistan in the West to Nepal and China in the North, Burma and Bangladesh in the East and Sri Lanka in the South, our relations with these countries vary from hostility to indifference.

China’s influence in countries on our periphery has been on the increase. In addition, China has this ‘String of pearls policy’. Though it is a nightmarish situation, India’s security establishment seems to sleep well. The Maoists’ problem and the one in Kashmir are security challenges being addressed in a cavalier fashion. Even if one is to discount the problems in the North-East, the overall security scene is disquieting.

We have been decidedly and overwhelmingly complacent on the issue of national security. Not only has our foreign policy failed to create friendly environment on our periphery but grossly neglected the emerging threats.

This policy suffered further setback when distant Japan, Australia and some South East Asian countries acquiesced to China’s claim that Arunachal Pradesh is a disputed territory. China has been calling it South Tibet and not a part of India.

Moreover, China has declared Jammu and Kashmir a disputed territory and started stapling visas of visitors from that state. More recently, it has reaffirmed its stand on this issue by denying visa to a senior army officer posted in Jammu and Kashmir and who was leader of a military delegation to China.

This stance of China and reportedly inducting large body of troops into Gilgit region of the Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) is to give a fillip to the ongoing turmoil in the Kashmir valley, besides controlling any unrest in this part of POK. While China occupied large tracts of territory in Ladakh, Pakistan illegally acceded the Shaksam valley in PoK to it. China is also reported to be improving the Karakoram highway and setting out to build a high-speed railway line to Gwadar port on the Gulf of Oman, for transporting oil to Tibet and Xinjiang province from where it can be ferried to mainland China.

There are suggestions flying thick and fast in the media that India must strongly protest against this Chinese move into PoK. But, protest to whom? China will summarily dismiss such protests and going to the United Nations will merely resurrect the old ghosts of Jammu and Kashmir. At best India can deny visa facility to Chinese, but what of the massive trade we have with that country?

China’s policy keeps time on its side while complacency is our forte. Even keeping time on its side, China has been assiduously and with single-mindedness creating overall military capabilities and military infrastructure in Tibet and spreading its influence in countries on our periphery. It has with equal zeal and purpose followed the policy of using Pakistan as a proxy and a cheap option to tie down India locally.

Then, there is the ‘String of pearls policy’ to squeeze India from all sides. China is building its naval strength at a furious pace and making forays into the Indian Ocean. We have slept through more than half a century, ignoring the emerging security scene and the gathering storms all around and within India.

Not only have we been complacent but decidedly negligent of the emerging security threats, both internal and external. At 2 per cent of GDP for defence as against 7 per cent of China out of GDP, twice the size of ours, India’s lack of concern for its security ought to appear alarming, even to one with impaired vision and the dimwitted.

In the real world, economic strength in the absence of military power is unsustainable. The gunboat diplomacy and wars of nineteen century were to capture markets and enhance influence and commerce for economic gains. The power play of the 21st century is going to be no different except that the form, formulations and contours of policy and coercive techniques will undergo a change.

For long we have been indulging in a puerile debate on the issue of ‘development versus defence,’ as if the two are mutually exclusive and in no way reinforce each other. The mandarins in Delhi have been smug in a world of make believe. To quote Arun Shourie, “Corresponding factors that keep us from growing as fast as our potential are precisely the ones that weaken our defence. The same holds for constituents of defence: the choice is not, ‘valour or high technology,’ cyber warfare or conventional warfare or nuclear capability but capabilities across the broad spectrum.”

China has developed the Gwadar port and it will have a strong naval presence there. This port is at the mouth of straight of Hurmoz through which oil supplies from the Middle East flow to India. The strategic importance of this move by China does not seem to have fully dawned on the Indian security establishment.

The Chinese Navy will also have berthing facilities at the Sri Lankan and Burmese ports. Radars at Coco Island keep watch over the naval ship movement from mainland to Andaman and Nicobar Islands and India’s missile launches from the Balasore missile range in Orissa.

India has helplessly watched developments in Nepal. It is with China’s help that the Sri Lankan government was able to decimate the Tamil Tigers. China, even with a late start, has galloped ahead, leaving us far behind in the fields of economy, science and technology and military capabilities.

It is not our case that the developments on the Tibet border and in POK are the harbinger of an early conflict, but these do not bode well for India. These developments need to be taken as a wake-up call and shake ourselves out of our complacency and stupor. Activating a few airfields and adding some roads or two mountain divisions and deploying two squadrons of fighter aircraft or lodging a protest will not do. These are knee-jerk reactions and reminiscent of our actions leading to the 1962 war with China.

India as a nuclear and emerging economic power, in the midst of potentially unstable regimes and with ambitions to exercise influence for the stability and security of the region and to safeguard vital national interests, cannot have military capabilities which in no way match those of the potential adversaries. Equally, an antiquated and potentially dysfunctional decision-making and operational system in the defence apparatus is anathema to the successful conduct of defence and foreign policy. India’s ability to meet future security challenges is highly suspect and this state of affairs cannot prevail any longer without seriously jeopardising national security.

There is, therefore, the requirement of evolving a comprehensive and long term national security policy taking into account the current and future security concerns and synergising these with foreign policy. Thereafter, we must work assiduously to develop military capabilities backed by diplomatic thrusts to meet the security challenges of the future and be in a position to exercise influence in our immediate neighbourhood. We need to double our efforts to enhance our economic strength and create compatible defence capabilities.
The writer is a former Deputy Chief of Army Staff
The Tribune- Decoding the Dragon

Indian Air Force Coping with Junk

October 12, 2010 5:15:55 PM The Pioneer
Forces need equipment, now!
Air Chief Marshal PV Naik’s statement that nearly 50 per cent of the Indian Air Force’s military equipment is obsolete is truly alarming even if one accepts his prompt assurance that the figure will be brought down to 20 per cent by 2014. This is not an ideal state of affairs given the fact that Pakistan has been receiving huge supplies of military hardware from both the US and China which have significantly contributed to its aggressive posture vis-a-vis India. While India has emerged as a regional economic superpower, its efforts to grow in stature worldwide cannot be realised with depleted defence forces. Since the conflicts that it is involved in with its neighbours require negotiations to resolve, New Delhi would be severely constrained in such talks if it had to bargain from a position of weakness — which would be the case if our defence capabilities decline any further, irrespective of the economic progress made by us. Look at the extent of obsoleteness: Our MiG-21 and MiG-27 aircraft are 40 years old and should have been phased out completely by now; decades old radars are no longer in a position to track planes fitted with state-of-the-art technology; and, our ground-to-ground as well as air-to-air missiles are at least three decades old and ought to have been retired for good. When defence technologies are getting upgraded at a furious pace, disadvantaging the Indian Air Force and its fine personnel with antiquated equipment is really playing with the security of the country and failing the people who guard the air corridors.

But it’s not just the Indian Air Force that carries the burden of old technologies; the Navy and the Army too are struggling with the malaise. Our T-72 tanks are fitted with second generation fighting devices, whereas most modern armies the world over have already upgraded to third generation equipment. While it is true that we have taken the first step towards resolving this issue by inducting the T-90 tanks and the Arjun Main Battle Tank, it will be some time before the newer acquisitions reach the critical numbers required. But perhaps the most glaring failure in equipping our Army with the latest hardware — one that could prove costly if we were to be forced into an armed conflict — is in the artillery. The last purchase we made were the Bofors guns and since then, following the massive scandal, our decision makers developed such cold feet that they have refused to finalise even a single artillery deal in the last 30 years, thus severely compromising national security. The Indian Navy, which has now been mandated to play a greater role in international waters to fight piracy, besides remaining on high alert to foil terror attacks, is similarly handicapped. How can one expect the Navy to deliver with outdated submarines — 10 of which should have been decommissioned by now — and three-decade-old helicopters and planes? Defence Minister AK Antony is aware of the looming crisis. Sadly, he has done precious little to correct the situation.
Coping with junk

India creates history in athletics, Gold after 52 yrs

India created history by breaking the 52-year-old Commonwealth Games gold medal jinx with Krishna Poonia winning the yellow metal in women's discus throw to become the first woman from the country to win a Commowealth Games gold in New Delhi on Monday.

India swept the event with Harwant Kaur and national record holder Seema Antil also winning the silver and bronze respectively.

Poonia's gold, which she won by throwing the discus to 61.51m, was the first gold after 'Flying Sikh' Milkha Singh's 440 yard race gold in the 1958 edition of the Games in Cardiff, Wales.

Harwant came up with an effort of 60.61m, a tad below her season's best of 60.66m, while national record holder Seema Antil threw the discus to a distance of 58.46m. (BJ-12/10)
India creates history in athletics, Gold after 52 yrs