While it is the task of the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force to be prepared to tackle any threats to the nation on the northwestern and northern land borders of the country, what is emerging is that the seeds of India’s next war are quietly being sown in the seas surrounding the Indian sub-continent. The seeds are being sown in the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and even in the South China Sea.
The scenario as it is unfolding, presages a major conflict with China. A conflict that is likely to take place within the next 5-7 years. A conflict that shall be fought on dimensions and planes very different from any battles between major military powers in the past. We are not likely to see any pitched battles between sea-borne armadas. While many minor incursions and skirmishes may occur, a full-scale Chinese invasion from Tibet into India, of the ‘boots on the ground type’, is also rather unlikely. So what are the dimensions of this war likely to be? Let us do some crystal gazing and examine the possibilities and the probabilities.
India’s next war will be with China but the attrition that China will try to inflict upon India will be way of economic damage rather than military destruction. While the military muscle shall be used more to intimidate than to destroy, the major effort is likely to be to try to strangulate India through an embargo on its seaborne trade. This would serve a two-fold purpose. The prime purpose would be to signal to all the Asian nations the supremacy of the Chinese nation and its primacy in Asia-Pacific affairs The second would be to indicate to the world that China should no longer be considered a military lightweight that can be pushed around – in other words, that it is now ready to do some pushing itself. That if it can take on and constrain India, it can easily squeeze the other smaller Asian (particularly ASEAN) nations. It would be a major signal to the USA that the world is now to be divided into two empires: America’s western empire and China’s eastern one, and that each should respect the other’s domain. As all China watchers know, that country’s collective psyche has still not recovered from the “humiliation” the Middle Kingdom suffered at the hands of the Europeans in the 19th century and the Japanese in the early 20th century. The dragon is just biding its time and building up its strength to recover its lost hegemonic glory.
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India’s Next War by Amrish Sahgal
China's peace time war strategy
China will resort first to encourage break-away factions within India. It will build up relations with India's neighbours such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh etc in order to ensure that they do not support India in any way in the war. It will actively support divisive factions within India such as naxalites and maoists and the tamils to break away from India and carve small splinter countries. This will chip India's capability to defend itself, as well as make it easy for China for piece-meal future annexations. The maoists and naxalites with their communist links, can be covertly sponsored by China to wage a proxy war within India. China can count on Indian maoist support since the 1962 war saw them actively recommend completely Indian surrender and merger with China in the Indian legislative assembly. Dealing with a civil war, will remove India from the board as a rival. By encouraging the disputed areas to splinter-off, It will also be easy for China to annex them silently and slowly after a short period on the basis of some police action or intervention.
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Future war China Vs India at Strategy Page
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