“Fall” is different this year

IT is during “Fall” that we have been visiting America and are able to savour the “fall colours” for which this country is famous. Manhattan offers beautiful walks, not only in the Central Park but along Park Avenue, Fifth Avenue, Lexington Avenue etc.

Central Park is a riot of colour and along various Avenues it is the spectre of well-appointed stores with latest in clothes, jewellery and assortment of items for the rich and the famous. From Gucci to Cartier to Brioni, to Louis Vuitton or you name it, they are all there, though at a huge price, whereas Lexington Avenue offers more modest shopping.

But this year we have been late in coming, and colours in the Central Park have lost their myriad hues and wear a drab wintry look. However, there is “fall” of a different kind. It is the “fall” in the economy.

All those stores for the rich and others for not so rich are shorn of customers and wear a deserted look. Many have put up notices for discounted sales, while some others are simply down and out and ripe for outright closure and great picking.

The newspapers make gloomy reading with layoffs in thousands by the day: Industry after industry seems to be going under. No one appears to know how all this came about. There is a recall to the Great Depression of 1929 and we learn that Bernanke, Chairman Federal Reserve Bank of America is an authority on the Great Depression and will surely fix the economy.

They say that perhaps “sub-prime lending,” in housing is the villain. But Greenspan, the previous Chairman of Federal Reserve Bank, was an authority on housing finance. So also were a bunch of CEOs, each an expert in his field, drawing fat salaries and millions in bonuses, whose companies have gone bust.

America too has the largest number of Nobel Laureates in economics. But now
we are told the economics is not a precise science. No two economists agree
on any one economic issue. The debate often turns to free capitalism versus
controlled economy.

The motor car industry is on the brink of collapse and is in dire need of resuscitation in the form of bridge loan (whatever it means) of 25 million dollars. Oil prices had shot through the roof and the great American gas guzzlers had lost their attraction and now when the oil prices have come down there is no credit available and there is little money in the wallets.

Law makers are not enthused with this fat demand of 25 million dollars. So uncertainty prevails as it does in most other areas. Auto manufacturers should have been working on fuel-efficient vehicles rather than on gas guzzlers. is the refrain .

Much hope is being pinned on the President elect, Mr Barack Obama, and his team. But the new Presidency is still many weeks away and much more “fall” may occur. Nor does the President elect have a magic wand to restore sanity and economic order in a jiffy.

The way Roosevelt handled the 1929 depression is now the subject of much study. But no two situations are ever exactly alike, so we wait out for the current financial turmoil to run its course.

Even if we are late for the “fall colours” this year, the Fall is there, though of a different type where the colours are missing but it does offer great bargains and is a shopper’s paradise. All you need is a fist full of dollars!

Lt Gen Harwant Singh (Retd)
“Fall” is different this year